Rising trade flows confirmed in third quarter 2009

by S. C.

Merchandise trade volumes of the Group of seven (G7) countries grew in third quarter of 2009 after stabilising in the second but were still were significantly below the levels of 2008.

Exports from G7 countries grew 5.0% quarter-on-quarter and imports were up 4.1% in the third quarter of 2009. Year-on-year, exports were down 17.5% while imports were 14.6% lower.

Germany’s export volumes rose by 3.3% over the quarter and imports were up 3.1%. Compared with the third quarter of 2008, exports were 16.5% lower and imports were down 10.9%.

United States’ exports turned positive with 5.0% volume growth quarter-on-quarter. Imports rose 4.7%. Year-on-year, third quarter US exports were down 14.5% while imports were 17.0% lower – a smaller annual decline compared with the previous quarter.

Japan’s quarterly exports rose 11.5% in the third quarter while imports were up 7.2%. Year-on-year exports were down 25.1% while imports were 12.7% lower.

The value of goods and services trade in OECD countries, measured in seasonally adjusted current prices in US dollars, rose in the third quarter of 2009. Exports were up by 7.8 % quarter-on-quarter and imports rose by 8.7% .

On a year-on-year basis, growth in the value of exports and imports of goods and services continued to plunge, by 22.1 % for exports and by 24.7 % for imports.

The overall trend for both goods and services marked a turning point in the second quarter of 2009 with an upswing in the third quarter. The trend is largely determined by the high share of goods in total trade.

Since May 2009, G7 total merchandise trade values have been increasing again after a continuous decline from August 2008. While this U-shaped pattern suggests a similar level in November 2009 to the year before, G7 trade still remains well below the levels of mid-2008.

The observed overall trend is remarkably similar across countries, supporting the notion of a synchronised trade collapse, followed by stabilisation and slight recovery. However, the U-shaped pattern for G7 countries shows distinct differences in trends in net balances. Increasing positive trade balances for Germany and Japan contrast with increasing negative balances for France and Italy. The United States and the United Kingdom broadly maintained their negative trade balance.