Domestic consumption was relatively subdued in 2010 on account of a typhoon season that reduced incomes among rural inhabitants. However, in 2011 we forecast domestic food consumption to rebound on the back of loose monetary policy and the relatively subdued food price inflation. This, combined with high agricultural commodity prices and favourable government policies, should provide strong encouragement to farmers. Indeed, we are forecasting at least a 10% production improvement in all farm products (except beef) out to 2014/15. Nevertheless, the country will continue to rely on imports for even its most basic foods like rice and pork and the ability for domestic farmers to continue this production growth will be tested in the coming years due to current and eventual reductions for livestock and rice imports respectively.
- Rice production growth to 2014/15: 32% to 13.1mn tonnes. This will be fuelled by continued improvements in infrastructure and yields as the government looks to attain self-sufficiency. Import tariffs will also encourage domestic producers.
- Corn consumption growth to 2015: 26% to 8.5mn tonnes. With around three quarters of corn use given to animal feed, growth in consumption will be driven by the expansion of the poultry and pork industries.
- Sugar production growth to 2015: 21% to 1.3mn tonnes. We expect sugar production to keep expanding driven by improvements in yields. Because of the country's market sharing system the country should be able to prevent domestic shortages in the wake of production increases.
- 2011 Real GDP Growth: 5.3% (down from 7.3% in 2010; predicted to average 5.3% from 2010 until 2015).
- Food And Beverage Price Inflation: 3% year-on-year in January 2011 (down from 4.3% y-o-y in January 2010).