Industrialization Of China increases fragility of global food supply

by S. C.

Experts predict that if China's recent urbanisation trends continue, and the country imports just 5% more of its grain, the entire world's grain export would be swallowed whole.
The knock-on effect on the food supply - and on prices - to developing nations could be huge.
Sustainability researchers have conducted a major study into the vulnerability of Chinese cropland to drought over the past 40 years, which has highlighted the growing fragility of global grain supply. Increased urban development in previously rich farming areas is a likely cause.

The study looked at China's three main grain crops; rice, wheat and corn, to assess how socio-economic factors affect their vulnerability to drought. Researchers compared farming areas with a resilient crop yield with areas that have suffered large crop losses with only minor droughts.
They found that traditionally wealthy coastal areas are just as susceptible to drought as areas with poor topography in the east of the country.

At the moment the Chinese government claims that China is 95% self sufficient in terms of grain supply. If China were to start importing just 5% of its grain (to make up a shortfall produced by low yields or change of land use to more profitable crops) the demand would hoover up the entire world's grain export.
The pressure on grain availability for international grain markets could, in turn, have a huge knock-on effect. Poorer countries are particularly vulnerable, as demonstrated by the 2007-2008 food crisis.
Published in the journal Environmental Science and Policy, the study used provincial statistics of harvests and rainfall together with qualitative case studies to establish the differences between land that is sensitive to drought and land that is not.

These trends of urbanisation are also happening in India, with the population predicted to keep on rising until at least 2050. Ultimately the limiting factor for grain production is land, and the quality of that land.