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The outlook on olive oil production in Mediterranean region

As usual at this time we offer a glimpse of the next olive oil campaign, a forecast much more nuanced and complex than other years

If, for some years, the EU has achieved stability of production, around 2 million, 2.1 million tons, also in North Africa is showing less dynamic and lively this year will be distinguished only Morocco. They will instead be celebrating the Middle Eastern countries, with production rising sharply and substantial quantities.

European Union
No big difference from last year. The production will amount about 2.1 million tonnes mainly thanks to Spain, which is assumed will be producing tons of 1.4000000 to 1.5000000. There is no area where you do not herald a good campaign. Also in the Toledo area, traditionally affected by late frosts, fingers crossed, hoping to bring home the whole abundant harvest. Good quality almost everywhere, not only in Spain but throughout the Mediterranean weather conditions favorable for olive fruit fly and barely active.
Greece also smiles this year. After the fires last year's production recovers in Crete, which is worth 30% of the country, and therefore should be around the 300-300 thousand tons.
Excellent performance for Portugal, which should produce between 60 and 80 thousand tons. Ben off to France with 6000 tons.

Italy
Italy could be seen Take the first second-productive power of Greece. The production is estimated at 300 000 tonnes with a situation very diverse from region to region. Well the South, particularly in Puglia, Calabria and Sicily, difficulties in the North Central.
In Puglia the Salento and Gargano celebrated as in the Bari region in the Andria and the production promises to slightly down. Overall, the region should show a positive sign since last year.
Same for the Calabria where he anticipates a good year almost everywhere. Same situation in Sicily, where some pain is manifested only in the East of the island.
In Campania and Lazio is going to be a good campaign, while difficult situation in Tuscany, Umbria, Emilia Romagna, Veneto and Lombardy and Liguria because of summer thunderstorms, often accompanied by hail, which affected crops in several areas.

North Africa
If the EU does not smile even in North Africa shows some flattening and this mainly due to poor performance in Tunisia, which should produce about 120 000 tonnes, down 20% over last year. In the center south of the country has indeed made to feel the drought that has affected the productivity of plants. In the North, which generally produce more fruit oils, however good the campaign promises. In Morocco, production is expected to be average, about 80 000 tonnes, while in Algeria the increase in production should be 20%, for a total production of 50-60 thousand tons.

Middle East
Great exploits for Syria (150,000 tons) and Turkey (160,000 tons), respectively +20% and +9% over last year. Both increased production volumes and new producing countries are as dynamic and growing but the oil should not lick our borders because everything is intended to export direct to consumer countries like the United States and to meet growing domestic demand.
Campaign to celebrate in Israel (9000 tonnes) and Iran (8000 tonnes), with outputs between two and three times the previous year. These are small producing countries that have sharp fluctuations in production due mainly to highly variable weather conditions and severe droughts of the territories.

Stock market and outlook on prices
The weather on the Extra virgin prices are basically stable not only because the total production should equal the previous year, if not more but also because of the stocks that have a reservoir of controlling prices.
In Italy, Greece and North Africa stocks are minimal and should vanish with the next contract, which should be signed before the campaign, but in Spain, the stock will be 250 thousand tons, to guarantee the full satisfaction of demand, even in the first weeks of campaign, when, generally, the low volumes made up prices.

by Alberto Grimelli, Marcello Scoccia
04 october 2010, Technical Area > Olive & Oil

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