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World olive oil balances for the 2014/15 and 2015/16 crop years

Last season the world production is provisionally assessed at 2.444.000 t, down by 25 pc from 2013/14. According to the latest official estimates, world olive oil production in 2015/16 is expected to reach around 2.988.500 t

The 2014/15 crop year opened with 743 000 t of olive oil held in world stocks. World production is provisionally assessed at 2.444.000 t, down by 25% from 2013/14.

EU olive oil production is assessed at 1.433.500 t, recording a decrease of 42% on the previous season. The individual figures show Spain in first place with 841.200 t, followed by Greece (300.000 t), Italy (220.000 t), Portugal (61.000 t), Cyprus (6200 t) Croatia (1000 t), France (1900 t) and Slovenia (200 t). Overall output in the rest of the IOC Members is 33% higher than in 2013/14.

The leader of the group is Tunisia with a record output of 340.000 t (+386%). Turkey comes next (170.000 t), and then Morocco (120.000 t), Syria (105.000 t), Algeria where production is moving constantly upwards (69.500 t), Jordan (23.000 t), Egypt and Lebanon (21.000 t each), Israel (17.500 t), Libya (15.500 t), Albania (11.000 t), Argentina (6000 t) and Iran (4500 t).

World consumption in 2014/15 is provisionally assessed at 2 857.500 t, showing a drop of 7% from the season before. The EU/28 consumed 1.532.000 t of this tonnage, equating with an 11% decrease on 2013/14 levels (−199.000 t), located primarily in Italy, France and Spain. The consumption figure for the rest of the IOC member countries is 1% higher than the season before. The biggest increases are seen in the figures for Turkey (+40%) and Algeria (+33%) although these are offset by decreases in Argentina, Syria, Tunisia, Jordan and Lebanon. Consumption in 2014/15 was generally lower than in 2013/14 in the group of non-IOC Members. Japan is the exception. Consumption is 9% higher in this country where an IOC promotion campaign is currently underway.

According to the latest official estimates, world olive oil production in 2015/16 is expected to reach around 2.988.500 t (+22%). This forecast positions production halfway between the levels of 2014/15 and 2013/14. The aggregate output of the IOC membership is estimated at 2.900.500 t. EU producers are expected to account for 2.049.500 t of this tonnage, thus showing 43% season-on-season growth. Further itemisation shows production forecasts of 1.300.000 t for Spain (+55%), 350.000 t for Italy (+58%), 300.000 t for Greece (no change) and 82.000 t for Portugal (+34%). Smaller tonnages are forecast for the rest of the EU producers. Elsewhere among the IOC membership the outlook is for olive oil production to be 8% lower than in 2014/15. The estimates report −16% in Turkey (143.000 t), −59% in Tunisia (140.000 t), −20% in Israel (14.000 t), −5% in Lebanon (20.000 t) and −4 % in Albania (10.500 t). Conversely, listed by order of volume, production is forecast to be higher in Syria (215.000 t), Morocco (130.000 t), Algeria (73.500 t), Jordan (29.000 t), Argentina and Egypt (25.000 t). The forecasts for the other countries are smaller.

World olive oil consumption for 2015/16 is forecast at 2.989.000 t, 5% more than the season before.

by S. C.
30 december 2015, Technical Area > Olive & Oil

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