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China's fertilizer market in 2011

In 2010, China had accumulative fertilizer production of 66.20 million tons, increasing by 2.50% YOY, and the output created the highest record in history.

Since 2010, the profitability of China's fertilizer industry has been significantly improved and the total profits have seen a substantial growth. In January-November 2010, the accumulative profits of the fertilizer industry totaled CNY 24.40 billion, increasing by CNY 9.13 billion over the same period of last year; the sales profit rate was 4.70%, increasing by 1.01% over the same period of last year. At the end of November 2010, the deficit scale of China's fertilizer industry was 16.49%, decreasing by 5.74% over the same period of 2009.

In 2010 H1, China's fertilizer industry was influenced by various factors such as excess production capacity, frequent meteorological disasters, insufficient demand and export difficulties, and the fertilizer market was in downturn operation overall. However, since the third quarter, the fertilizer products have changed the former sluggish state and the prices have presented the signs of rising overall.

Since 2010, rapid expansion phenomenon of production capacity for China's fertilizer industry has been controlled to a certain extent and the investment growth rate has significantly slowed down. The accumulative investment of the fertilizer industry in 2010 reached CNY 98.82 billion, increasing by 7% YOY at the rate 18% lower than that of the national assets investment of the whole society; the number of new projects was 1,159, decreasing by 13.90% YOY. Among them, it was mainly the nitrogen fertilizer whose investment decreased faster, decreasing by 16.10% YOY, while phosphate fertilizer, potash fertilizer and compound fertilizer as well as organic, microbial fertilizer fixed assets investment showed a year-on-year growth of 8.30%, 35.30%, 34.10% and 27% respectively.

Driven by various factors such as brisk demand and cost increase, China's fertilizer market in 2011 will be better than 2010, and the price centre will move up. However, it is predicted that when domestic fertilizer market shows the overall rise in 2011, it will appear clear differentiation. Among them, the prices of nitrogen fertilizer and potash fertilizer may show a continuous slight rise and phosphate and compound fertilizer has little possibility of substantial rise.

by S. C.
02 may 2011, World News > Asia